In this scenario, Biden would have 238 electoral votes, Trump would have 186 electoral votes, and 114 would be tossups.
Likely Dem.
- California (55 electoral votes)
- Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
- Delaware (3 electoral votes)
- District of Columbia (3 electoral votes)
- Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
- Illinois (20 electoral votes)
- Maine (1 electoral votes)
- Maine (1 electoral votes)
- Maine (1 electoral votes)
- Maryland (10 electoral votes)
- Massachusetts (11 electoral votes)
- New Jersey (14 electoral votes)
- New York (29 electoral votes)
- Oregon (7 electoral votes)
- Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
- Vermont (3 electoral votes)
- Washington (12 electoral votes)
Lean Dem.
- Colorado (9 electoral votes)
- Michigan (16 electoral votes)
- Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
- New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
- Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Toss-up
- Arizona (11 electoral votes)
- Florida (29 electoral votes)
- Maine (1 electoral votes)
- Nevada (6 electoral votes)
- New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
- North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
- Ohio (18 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Lean GOP
- Georgia (16 electoral votes)
- Iowa (6 electoral votes)
- Nebraska (1 electoral votes)
- Texas (38 electoral votes)
Likely GOP
- Alabama (9 electoral votes)
- Alaska (3 electoral votes)
- Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
- Idaho (4 electoral votes)
- Indiana (11 electoral votes)
- Kansas (6 electoral votes)
- Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
- Louisiana (8 electoral votes)
- Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
- Missouri (10 electoral votes)
- Montana (3 electoral votes)
- Nebraska (1 electoral votes)
- Nebraska (1 electoral votes)
- Nebraska (1 electoral votes)
- Nebraska (1 electoral votes)
- North Dakota (3 electoral votes)
- Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
- South Carolina (9 electoral votes)
- South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
- Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
- Utah (6 electoral votes)
- West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
- Wyoming (3 electoral votes)