When Can States Begin To Relax Social Distancing?

Modelers from the University of Washington are estimating when COVID-19 infections fall below one case per 1 million people. At that point, easing social distancing restrictions may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation and limiting sizes of gatherings.

Data as of April 27

May 10 West Virginia
May 11 Hawaii
May 13 North Carolina
May 16 Ohio
May 17 Vermont
May 18 Montana, New Hampshire
May 19 Idaho, Maine
May 20 California, Delaware
May 21 Illinois, Michigan
May 22 Alabama, Indiana
May 23 Nevada, Wisconsin
May 24 Tennessee
May 26 Louisiana
May 27 District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
May 28 New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
May 30 Washington
May 31 Oregon, Wyoming
June 1 Colorado, Mississippi
June 3 New Mexico
June 7 Minnesota
June 13 South Carolina
June 15 Texas
June 17 Connecticut, Missouri
June 21 Florida, Massachusetts, Rhode Island
June 22 Kentucky
June 28 Arkansas, Georgia
June 29 Kansas
July 1 Iowa
July 2 South Dakota
July 6 Arizona
July 7 Utah
July 8 Nebraska
July 20 North Dakota


Projections for Alaska and Oklahoma are unavailable in the latest data update.